Still reeling from the sad news about Don Cornelius, it’s painful to acknowledge the loss of another irreplaceable master, Ben Gazarra. Some good tributes out there.

What can you say about Gazzara? He was relevant in every decade going back to the ‘50s. And it wasn’t just his longevity or his unique, idiosyncratic style(s); he was old school in the sense that he radiated that aura: above all, he was a man.That might not sound like much, or it may even sound silly (What does aura have to do with anything? These are actors playing roles and they can be transformed into heroes or villains depending on the script and the director), but back in the days when special effects did not do as much to determine what an actor could—and could not—do, it mattered when a man could bring that certain gravitas to a role. As such, he was never typecast (because he was too talented) but he did inexorably bring that aura to each role. These were days when directors counted on that aura, because it conveyed legitimacy that was understood before a single line was spoken.

It seems fitting that, just a day or two after Entertainment Weekly‘s Owen Gleiberman lamented the elitist state of the present Academy Awards, the Screen Actors Guild throws a minor monkey wrench into the entire end of the year argument. For weeks, the gimmicky French phenomenon The Artist has been racking up accolades, landing love from the PGA (Best Film), DGA (Best Director) and those self-appointed pundits of film fortune - the Internet - as the presumption 2012 pick. Then the thesps decide to do something a bit…radical (?)...and give The Help a hand up. Sweeping the female acting awards (Viola Davis - Best, Octavia Spencer - Supporting) and even earning the coveted Ensemble prize, it looks like now we have a foot race to final red carpet of the season.

Or do we? According to Gleiberman, the pre-coronation of The Artist as the presumptive winner may have as much to do with the Weinstein Hype Machine and its annual drive to bring one of its distribution diamonds to the fore as it does the quality of Michel Hazanavicius’ vision. But going deeper, EW‘s chief critic argues that it’s also a sign of the Academy’s new snobbery. Ever since The Hurt Locker (the lowest grossing film ever to win Best Picture) topped Avatar (the highest grossing movie of all time) in 2010, Gleiberman suggests a ‘sea change’ among the AMPAS voters. In his opinion, the days when commercial popularity played a part in the determination of Oscar glory are gone. In their place is an insularity which follows trends and co-conspirator consensus in determining who wins.

Tomorrow, 24 January, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their nominations for the 2011 Oscars. As usual, a couple of known/unknown names (in this case, Winter’s Bone star Jennifer Lawrence and AMPAS President Tom Sherak) will get up at the butt crack of LA dawn and deliver the good/bad news to a bunch of bleary eyed artists, each one hoping their years of work and months of media gladhanding will lead to a legitimate chance at a shiny gold statue. Publicists will then begin the push as many will find their endless junket routine rewarded. Others on the outside looking in will have to wait for another year (or never).

There are, however, a few certainties that you can bet on when it comes to this second to last act in Hollywood’s own slice of self-hype, givens that never go away, no matter the year or the crop of films or the growing critical consensus. For some, it’s the fun of the Oscars, trying to outsmart the pundits and predict what will or will not get the nod. For most, it’s yet another indication of how out of touch the Academy is with the vast majority of the ticket buying public. So in order to prepare you for the inevitable letdown come 9:00am EST Tuesday, here are the five truisms - aside from The Artist - you can take to the aesthetic bank. While some of what you enjoyed will see success, a good percentage will have to wait for that great leveler - time - to find their proper perspective.

As we slowly march ever onward toward the inevitability which is the Academy Awards, one film seems destined to determine the fate of all others in the movie mix. Those clever Weinsteins, who play the cinema like well versed horse breeders each and every year, have once again backed what they believe is the eventual winner of 2011’s Best-of race - The Artist - and are going full bore through the rest of the telling trophy cavalcades looking for that elusive thing that makes a Oscar shoe-in: consensus. It is slowly forming - various critics groups, the recent Golden Globes, the PGA and DGA nods - and while many are unhappy with the hardball approach to the brothers campaigning, it cannot be denied that it gets results.

So it’s with a wink and a disapproving laugh that we learn about one of the problems facing The Artist in theaters across the world. Most specifically, there are reports out of the UK about audience members accosting the theater management post-screening, many demanding their money back…and the reason why is even more amazing than the original chutzpah it takes to go back to a ticket booth and ask for a refund. It seems that some consumers were dissatisfied with the film and needed to voice that disapproval. And, again, what were they unhappy with? Believe it or not, it was the fact that the film was silent.

Once again, the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press have raised more questions than they answered. While handing out their annual gaudy glam golden glad hands on 15 January, they sent very mixed signals over which films and filmmakers should be preparing for Oscar glory. Granted, the Globes are never a good indicator of future success, but they still become the first piece in a six week puzzle that hopes to crown the year’s best. Still, what is one to make out of Martin Scorsese’s Best Director nod for Hugo? And if that movie was so expertly helmed, how did it not win one of the two Best Movie awards? In the same vein, if both The Descendants and The Artist were deemed the Best Drama and Comedy/Musical of 2011, how were directors Alexander Payne and Michel Hazanavicius seemingly snubbed?

If you jump further down the junket rabbit hole, the queries continue. Both George Clooney and French actor Jean Dujardin won for Best Actor, again supporting The Descendants and The Artist in their push for frontrunner status. Yet neither film walked away with another major award, leaving Best Supporting Actor to the aging (if still amazing) Christopher Plummer and Best Supporting Actress to The Help‘s sole soul salvation, Octavia Spencer. Heck, even the no longer relevant Woody Allen got a chance to claim a bit of his old glory back by snagging the Best Screenplay trophy for Midnight in Paris. As for star turns, Madam Meryl Streep showed up and claimed yet another accolade for her work as a befuddled Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady while Michelle Williams walked back into the Oscar conversation for her turn as a certain blond bombshell in My Week with Marilyn.