Though 2012 may not have been the strongest or most groundbreaking year for movies—very good movies aplenty, sure, but nothing particularly mind-blowing—the 2013 Academy Awards ceremony has the potential to be the most memorable in recent years. And not because Seth McFarlane probably won’t be able to resist doing his Stewie voice on the Oscar stage (#LOLZ, #SMH, #etc.). Rather, for the first time in quite a while, there simply don’t appear to be too many shoo-ins.

Jessica Chastain seemed undefeatable just a month ago, but now Jennifer Lawrence appears to be surpassing her as the favorite as Silver Linings Playbook keeps expanding its audience and Zero Dark Thirty continues to fade in the wake of controversy and Kathryn Bigelow’s directorial snub. Anne Hathaway’s recent wide-eyed theater-kid shtick at every award ceremony may have begin to backfire and all those moments of bowing down to worship at the altar of Sally Field may actually work in Field’s favor. Daniel Day-Lewis’ Lincoln seems the easy pick—but is it too easy? Could Bradley Cooper emerge victorious alongside costar Lawrence? It’s pretty clear that Robert DeNiro’s taking home the gold man for his turn in Playbook, and so maybe there’ll be a strange sweep that extends to Best Picture and Best Director for David O. Russell?

That Jennifer Jason Leigh, who took her second name from family friend Jason Robards, has missed out on even a single Oscar nomination during her courageous and lauded career simply does not make sense.

JJL started off her career strongly, with a performance in the television film The Best Little Girl in the World that showed a ferocious commitment to using her body as a tool to show not only her character’s specific physicality, but also their complete history. This Strasbergian talent for transforming has become something of a trademark for the actress, who the very next year appeared in the landmark Fast Times at Ridgemont High, which made her a household name and branded her a breakout star of her generation.

As an awards season prognosticator, it’s my job to follow every race from beginning to end. Whether it’s Actor, Actress, Director or Picture, I have to be there from when the National Board of Review releases its Top 10 list all the way through the announcement of who won Best Director at the DGA awards. It’s a fairly brief, rapid-fire season, and it’s only getting shorter. I’m starting to think, though, that we should shorten it even further.

Let’s shorten it to nothing.

Precursor ceremonies are the necessary evil of an awards season; except for the life of me I can’t figure out why they’re necessary. Perhaps it’s the democratic way to allow every random group of film fans to have their day in the sun, shining a light on whatever films and performers they so choose.

There was a thing such as good Germans during WWII and this seems to be the entire premise behind Lore, but then again, not really. It’s easy to see how people will most likely be offended and shocked by the notion that stories taking in place in Germany during the war don’t necessarily have to vilify every single person in the country and as such Lore might be one of the most controversial movies released this year.

The film is Cate Shortland’s sophomore effort after her multi awarded Somersault, which came out almost ten years ago. Like she did in her debut, she proves she has a rare kind of sensitivity that bypasses all notions of cheap sentimentality in search of a bigger truth. Lore (played by Saskia Rosendahl) is the name of the heroine in this story, a teenager who suddenly has to become caretaker to her younger siblings after their wealthy Nazi parents are taken away by the triumphant Allied forces.

Oscar’s nominees:

Glenn Close ... The World According to Garp
Teri Garr ... Tootsie
Jessica Lange ... Tootsie
Kim Stanley ... Frances
Leslie Ann Warren ... Victor Victoria

The five women nominated for Best Supporting Actress of 1982 were all pretty much deserving, if conventional choices. Far be it for me to deny Jessica Lange an Oscar win, but she is the leading lady of Tootsie, and the film’s emotional center. Since the Best Actress Oscar had been long-since preordained to go to Meryl Streep in Sophie’s Choice, Lange’s bid for a win in that race was not ever going to happen as much as she deserved the win. Since Lange’s electric turn in Frances already had everyone buzzing, voters saw fit to knock down her Tootsie co-lead to supporting status, thus securing Lange a win in arguably one of the most important years of her entire career. That said, I would personally cite her as Best Actress of the year for both films.