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http://www.popmatters.com/pm/news/article/41455/apples-hype-phone/PopWire: News, Reviews and CommentaryApple's hype phoneDo you realize what you are doing in writing this article? Do you hear that sound? That’s the sound of millions of mac users clicking this as a bookmark for future use. When the iPhone is a massive runaway hit to can expect this article will be brought up for years to come, much to your chagrin… Good Luck Ask David Goldstein how much email he gets regarding this statement: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/01_21/b3733059.htm Comment by Dude from Rochester, NY — May 21, 2007 @ 11:45 am quote: “(Laura Goldman worked on Wall Street for more than 20 years for such firms as Merrill Lynch and UBS Warburg. She now runs her own investment advisory, LSG Capital, from Tel Aviv, Israel.)”
Okay, maybe she was a secretary at those firms? Worked in the mail room?
Comment by guest — May 21, 2007 @ 3:10 pm This looks like the kind of troll you’d find on a Yahoo Finance message board...where to start, where to start… OK, “With those two sentences, Jobs has effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead.” No. He did that a long ago when he declared “year of the laptop” in 2003. The laptop is about to seriously morph now, but even as the line between laptops and PDA’s blurs (watch for Apple to make all laptops 3G and a to launch an all-flash subnotebook with the year), these will still be computers. We may not just refer to them as such. “Now that the future of Apple is the iPhone...” No, it is not. Apple has the fastest-growing market share in computers (laptop or desktop). OS X runs on these as well as the iPhone. The iPhone is but one leg in a multi-device strategy. Comparing Apple’s valuation (a company showing rapid growth and ROI) to Motorola (a company with tired products and in obvious decline) is so apples to oranges that it’s ridiculous: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MOT&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=AAPL. You call yourself an analyst, and make the statement “whopping” 27 times earnings. Hmmmm, so GOOG’s 42 times earnings and 36 times earnings are what, then? Lots more in here to refute, but sticking to the most glaring.... “Apple, in collaboration with Motorola, produced a phone called the Rokr” No, Motorola produced that POS phone, not Apple. Apple provided the software, and it was a keen move on their part to investigate the phone market without putting any serious capital or reputation at risk. Incredibly shrewd move.
“The phone never caught on due to limited storage capacity./
“The touch type keypad is beautiful to look at but hard to use for lengthy emails.” So, you’ve actually tried one? Oh, I didn’t think so. So you are just conjecturing. And how many “teens and young adults”, the market you’ve identified, the IM generation, compose “lengthy emails” anyway? “Since third-party software programs cannot run on the iPhone...” No, only ones that Apple approves of, so it doesn’t face the virus-fest that Windows users enjoy. “it is impossible for professionals to read documents in the ubiquitous Microsoft Word format.” Um, no. Apple provides software that reads MSW formats, just fine, thanks. “Jobs’ sales target even seems unlikely” Haahahhahaha, good one… “the stock options scandal” - oh, there we go with that again...this article was supposed to be about the phone being so piss-poor… Sell me all your AAPL. I’ll gladly take it off your hands. Yes, there will eventually be a pullback in this stock, but not until after June 11. Comment by Beelzebub — May 21, 2007 @ 3:24 pm — PopMatters sponsor —This “expert” should make it obvious that even so called “experts” get it Oh So Wrong… Perhaps Ms Goldman wants in on the profits and hope that this “article” of hers will induce people to sell Apples shares and so drop the share price, enabling Ms. Goldman to buy some at a price break. This “article” makes me think of the fake email last week that dropped the shares $7 for a few hours… It has yet to be established who manipulated the market. As this piece has SO much wrong, can it be anything but a try to do so again? Comment by Chris Rose from Arizona, USA — May 21, 2007 @ 3:27 pm Goldman skewered:
Another techno-pundit predicting Apple’s failure. You join a long list. Naturally any product can fail (or succeed), so it will take the intrusion of reality before we know the result. No matter what the business or product though, it is a fact that people will pay more for elegance and simplicity of use in technology, whether it be a Toyota or an iPod. I’ve never heard anyone call smartphones easy to use, so I’d say there’s an opportunity there, and Apple has capitalized on that situation many times. We’ll see. Comment by James Stead from Charlotte, NC — May 21, 2007 @ 4:27 pm Ms. Goldman,
I, then took a look at Apples performance over the last few quarters and I have to say that I think you may have shorted your analysis on this one. While I am sure that Apple will bounce a little over the next year, I think you will find this advise to dump Apple will come back to haunt you. Actually, with new Apples due out this year, a new operating system, and the iPhone, I think its time for me to buy, not sell. Fact is, I am kicking myself for waiting this long. :-) Norm Comment by Elder Norm from usa — May 21, 2007 @ 4:36 pm — PopMatters sponsor —The desktop computer is dead? This is the dumbest comment I have ever read about Apple. In recent surveys, 25% of incoming university freshman are using Apple computers. Mac sales are going up quarter on quarter and gaining market significant share. Where is this ‘analyst’ getting these innerant ideas? iphone is only an extension of the computer of the future. The heart of Apple is great software. Software will challenge and change consumer electronics and gadgets, driving new catagories of products. And they will all be connected and control by...what else?...a computer. Comment by RJ from Hong Kong — May 21, 2007 @ 4:47 pm Another naysayer that simply doesn’t understand Apple and it’s continuously growing loyal costumer base. To compare the almost never new or surprising Motorola to the continuously ambitious innovations of Apple is like comparing dog crap to apple butter. Apple gives you control back of your music through iTunes an the ever present iPod, your tv with Apple TV and soon your mobile phone along with a little music and a wireless internet browser thrown in. Apple will sell 10,000,000 of these phones without even cracking into new customers. With Apple averaging sales of 3 or 4 million iPods a month, you might say that 10 or 20 percent of those customers will buy the iPhone. And don’t forget Apples long term loyal base like me and you will hit those numbers easily. I saved the money for the iPhone within weeks of the announcement and there are millions more like me just waiting in the wings for Apples iPhone to arrive. And the wow factor on top of all this will most likely make it hard for Apple to keep up with the demand. I have already seen the junk phone offerings that run MS software and will never touch one again. Leave the blackberry’s to the corporate world to scrape and fight for market share while Apple proves your “sell” on Apple to be a mistake. The last time I responded to a naysayer like you Apple stock was at 32 and look at it now. Apple has enough new products in the pipeline to continue to amaze the tech savvy public for years to come. Many of us don’t want to screw around with products that don’t work like there are supposed to and don’t mind spending a little more up front for the long term savings realized from a superior product. You have nerve but I couldn’t trust you for market advice for a second. Be assured that your will be reminded of your article and remarks as they are proven quite wrong. Cliff Comment by Cliff Pitcher from Seattle Wa — May 21, 2007 @ 5:30 pm This article is incorrect and has strange illogical jumps and wrong conclusions. The author should be ashamed. She knows about 10% of the capabilities of the iPhone platform. Comment by John V. Keogh from London — May 22, 2007 @ 4:08 am This is fun. All the morons come out of the woodwork to bash Apple because it’s a sure-fire way to generate some traffic. At least this moron is outside of the United States. She won’t see an iPhone for a very long time. Perhaps she’s just bitter. Comment by Bryan from United States — May 22, 2007 @ 10:59 am — PopMatters sponsor —Wow. What a stunningly incompetent analysis. I’m wondering what sort of qualifications one needs to write an article. Insight? Nope. Facts? Nope. Looks like basic literacy is all it takes. I don’t have the time or interest in commenting on every ridiculous statement contained in this article. Besides, my fingers would be exhausted from all the typing involved in such an endeavor. But on two points: Apple NEVER stated it’s goal was 10 million units. Apple stated that the global cell phone market was 100 million units and that they would love to get 1%. Looks like someone got facts from an overheard conversation in a coffee shop rather than someone that actually listened to what was actually said. The iPhone is Apple’s future? Sounds like an ignorant Wall St. windows user to me. Excuse me, but Apple derives ~50% of revenues from computer sales. Apple, this year, should see a far greater boost in revenues from computer sales rather than iPhone sales. Drivers to growth will be an intel-native Adobe Photoshop, which will drive sales in the core market of creative professionals, and the release of Leopard. Again, you would know this if you knew how to check facts and actually analyze them. Apple should start having a P/E inline with Motorola? Wow, no wonder you are not working on Wall St. any more. I would have fired you years ago for such pathetic reasoning. Apple sports a high P/E because it is growing at >20%/year. Motorola has a lower P/E because it is growing at a slower rate, NOT because it is in the cell phone industry. There are many other inaccuracies in your “financial analysis” such as revenues, market cap, earnings growth and quality, margins, but I won’t get into them here. There are so many inaccuracies in this article it is mind boggling. Initially I would just attribute this to stunning ignorance and incompetency. However, I will give you the benefit of the doubt. I’m guessing that you at least have a modicum of experience and intelligence. And really, could someone come to so many bad conclusions all at once? Therefore, I’m guessing you have: a) Short positions in Apple, possibly taken when the stock options “scandal” broke (and are desperately trying to reduce massive losses). b) Long positions in NOK, MOT, RIMM, DELL or MSFT. Or some combination therein. c) some combination of the above. By the way, whatever happened to disclosure of personal and company positions in the stocks mentioned? Either way, I need to mark down your name and whatever company you work at. Just so I know to NEVER EVER trust any of my money with you. Comment by rip from Los Angeles — May 22, 2007 @ 1:54 pm Nice to see Steve Jobs’ little army of propagandists is still intact. Seriously, this is a hugh corporation. Why are you guys getting so bent out of shape if one writer doesn’t buy the corporate hype of Apple? Are you guys actually all Apple employees? Comment by Steve from New York — May 22, 2007 @ 3:39 pm Haha, Apple just closed at $125 per share today, almost a month after Laura gave her “insightful” analysis. We don’t mind it if people don’t buy the corporate hype, but we also expect people to make arguments that actually make sense instead of the buffoonery that poses as analysis. We especially mind it when these people then suppose that people make investment decisions based on their vapid analysis. So, Laura, how are your investments doing lately, especially regarding AAPL? Comment by Vita — June 19, 2007 @ 1:11 am Laura Goldman had a series of jobs on Wall Street but was thrown out of the US after a failed blackmail attempt against Thomas H Lee (the last in a long line of similar cases she brought) and she now runs LSG Capital from a seedy 2-room apartment in Tel Aviv. “Insightful”?? Yeah, right! Comment by Andrew Latterman from Baltimore — June 25, 2007 @ 3:51 am — PopMatters sponsor —Well it is July 3rd, Apple has sold over 500,000 iPhones in a couple days, reviews from all the experts are gushing in their reviews, mac desktop and laptop sales are continuing to climb each month, and Apple stock closed at 127. Congratulations, you made it into the Darwin Hall of Losers. Only the rare “expert” makes it into this group. These gifted individuals can put their foots in their mouth right up to their kneecaps. You are right up there with John Dvorak, Mary Jo Foley, and Steve Ballmer. Comment by Steven Trudell from Livonia, MI — July 3, 2007 @ 5:30 pm I’m glad I did not follow your loser advice to sell apple stocks. Just made a good amount of money! Comment by Charles Reb from napa — July 3, 2007 @ 5:48 pm MacDailyNews brought me back to this article today. That makes me think that you probably shouldn’t have started your own company. Some advises of your Merrill Lynch or UBS Warburg collegues might have prevented you from writing such BS. Maybe should you work with John Dvorak for the financial section of his blog. I’m sure that it would work! He claims he’s doing “great numbers”. Though, like I’m doing with Dvorak, as opposed to MacDailyNews, I’ll probably ignore your reports on my Mac news coverage for MacScoop. Maybe even the fact I’m spending five minutes to write this comment is too much honour for you. Comment by Alexandros Roussos from MacScoop — July 4, 2007 @ 5:07 am Clearly, Laura Goldman is a HUGE idiot!!!!!! Apple closed at $132.75 today. I would strongly suggest whoever employs this clueless jacka$$ fire her and make sure they hire people with skills and knowledge and don’t make dumb un-educated guess’s on something they obviously have no clue about!!! Laura Goldman is a clueless idot.. period Comment by Richie from Chicago — July 6, 2007 @ 2:59 am — PopMatters sponsor —Still roaring at 134 ... Read it and weep Laura. Comment by barnacle999 — July 12, 2007 @ 4:47 pm AAPL on May 21: 111.98 AAPL on July 13: 137.73 Brilliant sell call. hahahahaha Comment by rip from Los Angeles — July 13, 2007 @ 3:18 pm mr. goldman, sell baby, sell!!!!!
Comment by darren copeland — July 13, 2007 @ 5:01 pm please keep up your standard of analysis and stock recommendations. Based on your “sell apple” at $112 in May and Apple’s current close over $137, July 14, anyone who does exactly the opposite of your informed (sic)advice stands to make pretty hefty profits. Btw, to get something this wrong this quickly is pretty spectacular. Did you have to study hard and long to develop this skillset or were you just born stupid? Comment by ted markstein from australia — July 14, 2007 @ 8:32 am — PopMatters sponsor —Sell Laura sell! Meanwhile Apple hit $138 today.... Comment by Sun Ra from Ottawa, Canada — July 16, 2007 @ 4:50 pm So, as I write this comment on July 17, AAPL is trading at $138.08. Anyone following Ms. Goldman’s advice to sell at $112, has missed out on a gain of about $26 per share, or about 23% in a bit more than a month and a half. The lesson here is that sitting in an office on Wall Street for a couple of decades doesn’t give one any particular gift of prophecy. If you want to really understand a company’s prospects, talk to their customers, visit their stores, examine their products, and gain your own expertise. If you want to know more about Apple than the typical financial analyst, you can do it in a day. -jcr Comment by John C. Randolph — July 17, 2007 @ 9:18 am Oh, and one other thing: Ms. Goldman, please take note that if Apple fails to sell another iPhone after today, it’s still the best-selling cell phone of all time. -jcr Comment by John C. Randolph — July 17, 2007 @ 9:23 am Laura, you’re a moron, along with Eric Willard, Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer, and a ton of other MS-loving doofuses. Comment by dd from here — July 26, 2007 @ 3:59 pm — PopMatters sponsor —September 25, 2007: AAPL $153.18 at the close, for a gain of $41.19, or about 46% since the date of Ms. Goldman’s sell recommendation. -jcr Comment by John C. Randolph — September 25, 2007 @ 11:04 pm Haaaa Haaaaaaa Haaaaaa....... 10/1/2007 $156.33 Looks like you should know something about the companies you write about eh? Comment by Jeff from California — October 1, 2007 @ 7:51 pm October 02, 2007 Shares of Apple Inc. today rose $2.111, or 1.35% to close at $158.45 on volume of 27,849,177 shares to set a new all-time closing high. Comment by M. T. MacPhee from Calgary — October 2, 2007 @ 3:50 pm Shares of Apple Inc. today blasted through the $160 mark, surging $5.2099, or 3.33% to close at $161.4499 on volume of 33,087,617 shares to set a new all-time closing high. Comment by M. T. (Mike) MacPhee from Calgary — October 5, 2007 @ 4:02 pm — PopMatters sponsor —Laura, How’s that prediction about Steve Jobs effectively declaring the Mac dead working out for you? Apple to report more than 2 million Macs sold last quarter when it holds its conference call on Oct. 22. That’s an all-time record high. How could you have possibly been so dead wrong unless you were writing from passion or bias instead of from an actual understanding of this company or its stock? I can only hope that you’ve been putting your money where your mouth is and shorting AAPL shares over the past five months. Comment by lumi from Grounded in Reality — October 8, 2007 @ 3:39 pm Ms. Goldman, Would you please be so kind as to let us know any other stocks you recommend selling? 10/08/07: AAPL 167.89 + $6.44 (3.99)%. In other words, a gain of better than 66% since your recommendation to sell Apple. -jcr Comment by John C. Randolph — October 8, 2007 @ 8:46 pm Well, another day, another high for AAPL stock. I won’t join those insulting Laura in these comments. Her article is doing that for her by itself. Comment by Ted Wood from Vancouver Island, BC — October 17, 2007 @ 6:05 pm 10/17/2007: AAPL $172.75 + $3.17 (1.87%) AAPL’s market capitalization is now within 5% of overtaking IBM. -jcr Comment by John C. Randolph — October 17, 2007 @ 11:47 pm — PopMatters sponsor —Laura. Time to put a sell on Intel and IBM. Comment by M. T. (Mike) MacPhee from Calgary — October 18, 2007 @ 10:58 am Apple @ 174.36 on 10/22/07. HHA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! Analysts. What a crock. Comment by His Shadow from Canada — October 22, 2007 @ 5:27 pm Your “sell” advise of Apple share was one of the dumbest advise. http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/15269/ Comment by simon charles from napa, california — October 22, 2007 @ 5:43 pm 10/22/07: AAPL $174.36 (+3.94) at the close, but after hours it jumped to $185.99 (+11.63) on the earnings report. AAPL will open on Tuesday with a higher market cap than IBM or Intel. -jcr Comment by John C. Randolph — October 22, 2007 @ 6:54 pm — PopMatters sponsor —Apple now about to break 190, 70% higher than when this twit put a sell on it. The Joke lives on! Comment by barnacle999 — October 31, 2007 @ 5:52 pm Merry Christmas 2007!
Comment by Tranz Former from Denver — December 24, 2007 @ 2:22 pm Christmas Eve, 2007: AAPL $198.8 +4.89 I’ll check back in a couple of days, probably to mention that Apple’s broken $200 for the end of the year. Laura, what other stocks do you recommend selling? -jcr Comment by John C. Randolph — December 24, 2007 @ 8:37 pm Laura, what other stocks do you recommend selling?
Bye
Comment by giuseppe from milan, Italy — December 27, 2007 @ 11:25 am — PopMatters sponsor —Giuseppe sono d’accordo con te… bel commento! ;) ciao giovanni Comment by Giovanni from Milano Italy — December 27, 2007 @ 1:48 pm
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A bit early to critique the iPhone I think.
Apple never stated their goal was 10 million phones, but that even if they only attained one percent, that would be 10 million.
Comment by Ross Bellette from Christchurch New Zealand — May 21, 2007 @ 9:30 am