What a screenwriters strike could mean to you

With the writers in Hollywood getting ready to power down their computers and raise their picket signs—the Writers Guild of America is calling for a strike beginning Thursday—TV viewers could be in for a season of shoddy reality and game shows that’ll make “Kid Nation” look like Kurosawa. And moviegoers could see ripple effects a few months from now with delayed or canceled projects.

The writers are tussling with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers over such issues as DVD residuals and payments for “webisodes,” online content that’s not part of a TV series’ regular run. But the details don’t matter much to those of us who just want to know how Jack Bauer is going to survive without bathroom breaks this time around or what’s going to be the next romantic body blow to “Grey’s Anatomy.”

Many TV viewers might not notice the fallout from the strike until January or February—most series work several weeks ahead—and filmgoers will get a longer reprieve, because moviemakers work months ahead. But if the strike is prolonged, both will feel the effects.

The writers’ union’s 1988 strike, which lasted five months and cost Hollywood an estimated $500 million, had a profound effect on the industry. It helped further fragment a TV audience already being seduced away from the big networks by cable and videogames; it is estimated that network viewership dropped 9 percent. And that was before the cultural onslaught of the Internet.

Here’s our guide to how the strike might affect the average entertainment consumer this time around—though, even if there’s a last-minute settlement, don’t get too comfy. Contracts with the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild run out in June 2008.

Good night and good luck:
Start cobbling together your own version of David Letterman’s Top Ten List or Stephen Colbert’s Threatdown, because the originals will be the first casualties of the strike. Late-night TV shows, filmed the night of broadcast and filled with very topical, of-the-moment humor, can’t be stockpiled in advance. Or, maybe you can just go to bed earlier—your dreams might be more entertaining than seeing your favorite late-night host flaming out with his own badly written jokes.

Reality is the new reality, Part I:
If you thought there are too many reality TV shows on now, you’ll want to vote yourself off the couch by January and go work on your sudoku skills or something. Though reality shows are overseen by professional writers, these series aren’t bound by WGA contracts. The same is true for game, talk, sports, newsmagazine and animated shows. So get ready to make TV friends with Ty Pennington and Simon Cowell, because you’re going to be seeing a lot more of them.

Don’t get too attached:
Investing viewing time in series with only middling ratings may be a riskier bet than usual. As diehard fans of such shows as “Family Guy” and “Jericho” have found, networks are quick to bring out the ax, even without a strike looming. Only hard lobbying from viewers rescued those two series from the cancellation bin.

But every network is faced with a quandary this year. Does it limp along with a series—like “K-Ville,” “Cane,” “Journeyman” or “Life”—that may have less than stellar ratings but might have a backlog of scripts and/or episodes completed that could see the network through a (short) strike? Or does it just cut its losses, since dramas are so expensive anyway? As one agent told Variety, “If Fox has to shut down a show like `K-Ville’ in the middle of filming the seventh episode, they might just decide it makes more sense to simply cancel it.”

And it seemed CBS would rather risk broadcasting a blank screen than keep the quickly killed “Viva Laughlin” around.

Turn off the TV, turn on the computer:
Since the Internet is slowly severing the attachment to network TV anyway, why not make it complete and get your shows online? No, we’re not talking about episodes of “Private Practice” or “CSI.” Short, continuing “series” specifically made for the Internet—such as the affecting “Hometown Baghdad,” the recently launched “Total Pop Star,” or the much talked-about “Lonelygirl15”—may get a boost in traffic if everyone’s TVs are dark.

Quality control? What quality control?
Reportedly, scripts are being pushed through the production pipeline without many of the touch-ups they might have received in less hectic times. And without writers available for rewrites while series or movies are in production, little things like quality and continuity might fly out the window in the rush to make deadlines. If “30 Rock” suddenly becomes more like “thirtysomething,” now you’ll know why.

Haven’t we seen this before?
When in doubt, go with what you know. That’s what networks just might do as they decide to plug holes with reruns of successful shows rather than go with the untried and untested. Hey, guys, remember: There’s no such thing as too many episodes of “Cheaters.”

All is not “Lost”:
Series such as “Lost” and “24,” which weren’t due to return until spring anyway, may have an advantage, as they could have new episodes to show at a time when others have lapsed into reruns or strike-driven hiatus.

But a long strike could have a drastic impact on other serialized dramas, such as “Heroes,” which count on viewers stitching together intricate threads of back story week after week.

Say what?
No one’s going to confuse ABC with the BBC anytime soon, but you may be hearing more accents on TV as networks might look to other English-speaking countries to fill in the gaps. According to Slate, NBC is looking into airing the original U.K. version of “The Office.” (Now, if they would go with the French or German versions of “The Office,” that would really be sweet.) And someone just might pick up the controversial Canadian sitcom “Little Mosque on the Prairie.”

A long strike could mean more distribution for imported films in theaters, as well. If it all means increased exposure for such weirdly fascinating series as England’s “Meadowlands” or the frothy “Footballers Wives” (both now shown on BBC America), hey, we’re all for it.

Reality is the new reality, Part II:
If the strike persists, the film industry will follow the TV industry down the path of creative workarounds. Theatrical documentaries have been on an upswing in the last few years and that could increase if theaters are desperate for material because the latest Steve Carell release is mired in production.

Are you ready to rock?
Movie-theater chains have already begun experimenting with screening live stage events, whether a Prince concert from Los Angeles or an opera from New York’s Metropolitan Opera. It beats showing low-grossing movies like “Rendition” and, in the middle of a strike, could seem even more attractive.

Yeah, but I didn’t like them the first time around:
But if theaters can’t convince U2 to perform for their benefit, they might have to rely on some C-grade star you saw on the front of a DVD box the last time you were at a video store and thought, “They’re still around?” Well, pull out your wallet and fork over $10 to see these acts on the big screen, as projects that would have gone into the straight-to-DVD netherworld may now get a chance in theaters. Who said there are no second chances in Hollywood?

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ABOUT THE STRIKE

Who’s striking: The Writers Guild of America against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers

How many people: The guild represents 12,000 film and TV writers.

When it would start: When the guild’s current contract is up, midnight Wednesday.

What’s affected: Live-action, fiction TV and movies. Reality shows, documentaries, game shows, news broadcasts/magazine shows, animation, sports and commercials are not affected.

Why: The major issues revolve around compensation derived from “new media.” Writers want more revenue from such increasingly important ancillary sources as DVD sales, downloads and “webisodes.” Producers, claiming they don’t know how these markets are going to shake out, are balking at giving writers a bigger slice of the pie.